A Forecast of Effective Global Warming Countermeasures for the Residential Sector in China for the year 2050

Date: April 2014

Author: Rui Xing (Graduate Student, Department of Science and Technology, Keio University, Japan) and Toshiharu Ikaga (Professor, Department of Science and Technology, Keio University, Japan)

Energy consumption in the Chinese residential sector is increasing quickly. In this study, we developed a Micro-model to forecast residential CO2 emissions. The model outputs support decision making for appropriate CO2 emission reduction goals. First, for Chinese urban residential buildings, we developed a CO2 emissions forecast model for 2050 taking into account lifestyle changes and Global Warming countermeasures. Second, we used the model to estimate the CO2 reduction potential of both residential and electrical countermeasures. Compared to the business as usual (BaU) scenario, implementation of residential countermeasures achieved 38%, 24% and 23% emissions reductions for Beijing, Shanghai and Hong Kong respectively. After combining them with the implementation of electrical countermeasures the reduction rates rose to 60%. We also compared the countermeasures to see which could bring the greatest emissions reduction. For Beijing, improvement of insulation was most efficient. For Shanghai and Hong Kong, COP increase of hot water supply appears to be the most efficient countermeasure. Through this study we were able to model global warming countermeasures for the Chinese residential sector, and found that reducing CO2 emissions by 60% from BaU is an achievable goal.

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